What happened
Nvidia is trading around $197 and has spent the past several sessions chopping inside a tight band between roughly $190 and $204. The latest test of the zone came on the Reuters report that DeepSeek is building proprietary AI chips to cut its Nvidia dependence — the stock dipped around 1.5-2% on the headline and was bought back almost immediately. Price is now pressing against the $198-$204 area from below, a former support shelf that has flipped into near-term resistance, while RSI(14) sits near 51 — momentum fully reset to neutral after six weeks of bearish drift.
Why it matters
Nvidia remains the bellwether for the entire AI trade, and the stock is nearly flat for 2026 despite record earnings — the market has been digesting valuation rather than rewarding results. That makes this consolidation zone unusually important: sellers have had every excuse to break the stock down, including the DeepSeek chip story, and have failed to hold it below $197. The DeepSeek risk is also smaller than the headline suggests, since Nvidia's China datacenter revenue has already collapsed from $4.6 billion a year earlier to essentially zero under export restrictions — there is little left to lose there. Meanwhile fresh demand signals keep arriving, like Nvidia-backed Nscale securing a $900 million credit facility to accelerate datacenter buildout on Nvidia hardware. This is a technically-led setup where positioning is being rebuilt at macro support rather than a news-driven trend move.
Levels to watch
- Support: $197, then the $190 area
- Resistance: $198-$204 zone, with $203.40 the key trigger
- Moving averages: price is compressing around its medium-term averages as the range matures
- Risk point: a daily close below $190 invalidates the basing idea and opens $184.75-$180.31
What would confirm the idea
A daily close above $203.40 would confirm buyers have absorbed the overhead supply that built up through the $198-$204 zone. Ideally that close comes with RSI(14) pushing through the mid-50s and holding there — evidence that momentum is turning rather than just price poking through. A successful retest of $198 from above afterwards would seal the range reversal and put a move toward $221 in play.
What would weaken the idea
Repeated rejections at $203-$204 followed by lower intraday highs would show supply still controls the range. A daily close below $190 — especially on a broad semiconductor down day rather than an NVDA-specific headline — would signal the consolidation is failing and that the stock is instead building a distribution top, with $184-$180 the next demand area.
Bull vs bear scenarios
Bullish scenario:
NVDA closes above $203.40, RSI(14) trends into the 60s, and the stock retests $198 as support before extending toward $221. The DeepSeek headline proves to be the final shakeout of weak hands at the lows of the range.
Bearish scenario:
The $198-$204 zone keeps capping every bounce, momentum rolls back under 50, and a close below $190 triggers a deeper flush into $184.75-$180.31, where the setup would need to be reassessed entirely.
Bottom line
NVDA is coiled at the decision point of a six-week range with momentum reset to neutral and the worst of the China risk already in the numbers. Above $203.40 the setup turns bullish toward $221; below $190 it fails — the range edges are the trade.